Archive for April, 2009

How Twitter Can Make You a Better Fantasy Football Player

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Although many haven’t realized it yet, Twitter offers something for everyone. You just have to know where and how to find it. For fantasy enthusiasts, the Microblogging-made-easy platform has spurred the production of a plethora of fantasy content that would not have been produced otherwise. Twitter is chock full of fantasy football and baseball analysts, experts, writers, etc. Many of these guys work for major companies (@TheRealTMR is Matthew Berry from ESPN), while some run their own blogs (like @troypatterson of RotoSavants). They aren’t required to Tweet. They do it because they enjoy it, it comes natural to them, it helps solidify their position, and, most of all, its gains them more readers. The fantasy writers I like to follow also avoid the asinine status updates for which Twitter receives so much vitriol. They are the kind of Twitterers that should make anyone realize that Twitter is an incredible tool.

Fantasy is a perfect fit for Twitter’s Microblogging concept. There is a deluge of sports news every day. Fantasy players crave updates on what that news means for fantasy. Well-researched blog posts are nice, but they take time to write. With Twitter these same analysts can give quick opinions on a much larger variety of topics. They can easily tweet thoughts and opinions as they pop into their heads. As a result more helpful content is produced. Even better, you don’t have to search out this content by going to a dozen different fantasy sites or blogs. It’s all delivered straight to your twitter feed (if you’re following the right people). To see what I’m talking about, check out Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) of Fanball.com. He is one of my favorite twitterers and a perfect example of someone any fantasy baseball or football fan should follow. He’s omnipresent, posts news quickly, and always throws in some interesting insight.

When fantasy football season rolls around, Twitter is going to be the place to be on Sunday at game time. Last second sit or start decisions always depend on breaking injury news. Twitter updates will be flying in as player status is announced around the league. This type of news is even more important in daily fantasy baseball leagues since players are randomly benched all the time. Knox Bardeen of CrookedPitch.com has got this covered. He sends out a flurry of tweets every day about unexpected lineup changes and injuries. If you are in a daily league he is a must-follow.

Being a fantasy sports and social media nut I caught onto the usefulness of Twitter in fantasy pretty quickly. My partner and I created www.FantasyTwits.com (inspired by StockTwits.com) earlier this year to provide a central location for worthwhile fantasy twittering. We weed out the best fantasy tweetists and post their updates on FantasyTwits so that the end user can easily find interesting info and analysis. The response to the site has been great so far. I believe it should be a routine visit for any fantasy freak, but of course I’m biased :) .

Keep in mind that it’s too early for fantasy football to really be lighting up Twitter. Only freaks like me and a few others are focused on football right now. This will change come June. In July and August your head will be spinning at all the fantasy football tweets. The sheer volume of easily-digestible information will be heavenly for your average fantasy football player/information junkie.

Here are some great people to follow for fantasy football and baseball. This list is by no means comprehensive, but I enjoy following all of them. I tried to only put people on this list who keep most of their tweets fantasy-specific so you get lots of info and little noise. This list is sort of in order from Football to Baseball consistency.

@calspears (I try to keep it only football), @FFCalculator (another of my favorites), @greggrosenthal (managing editor of RotoWorld), @ffootball (mainly links to interesting articles), @faketeams, @TheRealTMR, @FantasyPlayers, @jasoncollette, @fantasy_expert, @FP911, @TheRoundtable, @troypatterson, @sporer, @fakebaseball, @crookedpitch, @FantasyTeamName (just team names, no analysis)

ESPN Fantasy Mock Draft Lobby = A+

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

Options for the fantasy mock drafter have exploded over the past couple of years. MockDraftCentral.com used to be the only option. Now ESPN, CBS, FantasyFootballCalculator, and others have entered the space. Today I tried ESPN’s offering for the first time and I was very impressed. From mock draft sign-up to the Draft Lobby, ESPN nailed it.

Their lobby is the most complete I’ve seen, mainly because complete stats are shown for each player. You can even see if a RB recorded any passing yards. Players can be organized by position, including WR/RB. You can see a variety of stats over different seasons. With one click you can view and entire draft summary. The convenient drag and drop draft Queue works flawlessly. The dropdown box on the right allows you to view full rosters of your opponents with just a couple of clicks. Although you can’t see it in the cut-off image below, there is also a chat box that details the latest picks.

espn-mock-draft-lobby-football

I was also very pleased with the sign up process. ESPN is running dozens of drafts every 5-10 minutes, and at times they are already filling up. We’re months away from the season. As word gets out these drafts will only get busier. You can choose Mock Draft or Mock Auction and 10 man or 12 man leagues. Unfortunately there is no option to change the scoring system. You click the league you want to join and it takes you to that league’s lobby page. You can see who else has joined and a countdown to your draft. When the draft starts remember to click the “Go to Draft Lobby” button. You will be randomly assigned a draft position.

espn-mock-draft-league-page-football

Knocks: There are no scoring options and no way to pick your own draft position. No email with draft results is sent after the draft is over – that’s one of my favorite features on MDC.com. A really annoying clip of the ESPN theme plays when someone joins the draft lobby, lol, but I can live with that. The only bug that really had a negative impact on my experience was the occasional lag. Three times it lagged badly and 4-8 picks came through all at once. Such big jumps can absolutely ruin your preparation. I do not know if the lag was on my end or ESPNs. No one responded to me when I inquired about it in the chat box.

Despite these small issues, ESPN steals the mock draft show. Click here to check it out.

Torry Holt Fantasy Value on the Jags: No Hope for Holt

Monday, April 20th, 2009

I’ve yet to see a fantasy pundit excited for the prospects of Torry Holt in Jacksonville, and I’ve got to say I agree with all of them. A guy with Holt’s career doesn’t easily lose favor with his QB. The reason Donnie Avery emerged last season was that Holt simply couldn’t get open anymore. Now Holt is moving on to a new, run first system. He’ll get his share of targets as the clear cut #1 but I doubt he will do much with them. At the time of this writing I’ve got him ranked 40th, coincidentally just below Donnie Avery.  Finally, as the image to the right suggests, he could be going soft in his old age… (I kid)

Don’t just take my word for it, here’s some Torry Holt fantasy value chatter from around the web:

CBSSports: Fantasy owners also can’t count on him as anything more than a situational low-end No. 3 Fantasy WR option in weeks he plays in a dome. Let someone else in your league who recognizes his name take him earlier in drafts — we honestly wouldn’t consider him until the middle-to-late rounds.

RotoWorld: “When looking through the numbers and notes on Holt, I came to a depressing conclusion: he was probably lucky to get 796 yards and 64 catches last year. He finished 22nd in targets, but only 34th in yards, and 40th in fantasy points. And he had to close strong (445 yards in his last seven games) in a contract push to get there.”

NFL.com: “However, owners need to temper their expectations for the veteran wideout. Holt, 32, seemed to lose a step and was an enormous disappointment last season, finishing with 64 receptions, 796 yards and three touchdowns. Those were by far his worst numbers since his rookie season in 1999.Furthermore, the Jaguars haven’t had a 1,000-yard wide receiver since Jimmy Smith posted 1,023 yards in 2005.”

2009 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

Saturday, April 18th, 2009

All 2009 Player Rankings can be found here. Below is my TE rankings list. Most of these players are not exciting, but 99% of leagues feature at least one TE slot. Take a gander at these rankings to get an idea of what to expect for you 2009 fantasy football drafts.

1. Jason Witten – All of Witten’s conniving and plotting against TO finally payed off. Now he stands alone as Romo’s go-to guy. He’s a lock for 100 receptions, 1000+ yards, and 7+ TDs.

2. Antonio Gates - Strangely enough, Antonio Gates is no longer the main receiving weapon in San Diego. He’s still an elite TE, though. If Gates can stay healthy expect his number to bounce back towards 2007 totals – 75 catches, 900+ yards, and 8-9 TDs.

3. Tony Gonzalez – Gonzo still wants to be traded but his best fantasy value is in Kansas City. If Gonzo stays in KC he may move up to #2 on my list. He’s got at least one more 90+ catch, 1000 yard, 7+ TD season in him.

4. Dallas Clark - Clark will be a big beneficiary of the departure of Marvin Harrison. The entire Colts passing game could be in for a nice bounceback if they can solidify the offensive line. His upside is 1000 yards and 10 TDs. I’ll reach for him this season.

5. Kellen Winslow - Tampa is paying him enough that they have to figure out how to get the ball to him. He will rack up tough receptions and yardage over the middle. He should return to 80+ catches, but don’t expect a lot of scores.

6. Greg Olsen Cutler to Olsen! That combo will be around for a while. Olsen’s produced respectable numbers in his first two years, but now it’s time for him to break out. He may be Cutler’s go to guy in the Red Zone. 65 catches, 850 yards, and 8 scores is not unlikely. The main problem is that Desmond Clark will be taking many of his potential targets.

7. Chris Cooley – One TD in ‘08 was an anomaly. He had more catches and yards than at any point in his career. They’ll need him to block, but hopefully some other receivers can emerge to take some pressure off him in the red zone. If he doesn’t score 4+ TDs in ‘09 I’ll be shocked.

8. Dustin Keller – Keller showed flashes of brilliance as the Jets rolled through the Rams, Titans, and Patriots during Favre’s hot streak in ‘08. He was also nowhere to be found in some games, which can be expected from a rookie. This year, without Coles, he should be relied upon even more. He was drafted to catch passes and should solidify himself as a fantasy TE1 this year.

9. Owen Daniels – Owen Daniels has the talent and gets the fantasy love, but Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter get all the fantasy points. Owen suffered while Schaub was injured last season. A full season with a fully healthy Schaub (which may never happen) could bump Daniel’s into the 85 catch range. Keep in mind that Houston’s offense is officially very good.

10. Jeremy Shockey – Shockey showed up to voluntary workouts to get more time with Brees. He at least realizes at this point that his career is not on the right track. He’s got the talent and the QB so this could be the season that he turns it around. I’ll take a chance on his upside at this point but also draft a Bo Scaife or Ben Watson as a backup just in case.

11. Vernon Davis – This perennial disappointment is finally in a situation where he my excel. OC Jimmy Raye envisions him as a “Matchup Nightmare” and wants him to drop weight in the offseason so he can run more passing routes. I’m cautiously optimistic that Vernon will finally show up.

12. Brent Celek – Celek is an interesting option heading into 2009. He took over LJ Smith’s role (while Smith was in a contract year) and finished the last four games with 22 catches for 181 yards and 4 TDs. Draft him as a low end TE1 and take a solid backup. The TE in this offense will have a prominent role as long as Andy Reid is in town.

13. Tony Scheffler – Scheffler could be a steady safety valve for Orton. Orton did keep his TEs regularly involved in Chicago.

14. Bo Scaife – We all picked Crumpler to be the stand out receiving TE last season in Tennessee. Turns out Old Man Crumpler mainly blocked while Scaife led the team in receptions. Look for the Collins to Scaife connection to improve as Scaife plays for a new contract.

15. John Carlson – Carlson actually led the Seahawks in receiving last year by virtue of being the only pass catcher to stay healthy. In ‘09 he’ll be competing for catches with TJ Housh, Deion Branch, and Nate Burleson. He’s a top backup, but he may regress from last year’s totals.

16. Heath Miller – Miller always gets lots of looks in the red zone. If the Steelers offensive line play improves Miller will be even more involved in the passing game. Don’t forget about him on draft day.

17. Visanthe Shiancoe – Shiancoe quietly caught 7 TDs last season. He’s a top TE2 option.

18. Kevin Boss – Boss grabbed six TDs last season in only 33 receptions. He will continue to be a top red zone option in a prolific offense. Great plug and play with even more upside now that Burress is gone.

19. Zach Miller – Miller is one of the better receiving options in Oakland. Not that it matters – Jamarcus Russell is awful.

20. Anthony Fasano – Fasano was incredibly frustrating to own last year. He posted 8 catches in his first game, but never more than three after that. He did post 7 TDs. When it comes time to plug him into your lineup just cross your fingers and pray.

21. Ben Watson – Some have high hopes for Watson with the return of Brady, but the Patriots also signed Chris Baker. They’ll be splitting looks and there aren’t enough TE targets to share for fantasy relevance.

22. Marcedes Lewis – Nothing exciting, but did catch 40 balls last year.

23. Desmond Clark – Desmond Clark got 40 balls despite the 08 emergence of Greg Olsen. Clark will still be involved and now has a better QB.

24. Billy Miller – If Shockey doesn’t get himself together Billy Miller will be the beneficiary. Brees will push 5000 yards and 25+ scores again this season, so there are plenty of stats to go around.

25. Jermichael Finley – Finley (GB) is worth a flyer in deep leagues. He should be splitting time with Donald Lee at the very least.

26. LJ Smith – The Ravens signed him to run passing routes, so Smith will remain somewhat fantasy relevant. Drafters must realize that Todd Heap is done – do not waste a draft pick on him.

Ronnie Brown: 2009 Fantasy Bust

Monday, April 13th, 2009

I believe the fantasy community is still giddy over Ronnie Brown’s week 3 performance vs. the Patriots.  The “Wildcat Game” really was legendary – Brown had five total TDs against and made amateurs out of a Belichick squad.  The Wildcat took the league by storm and it didn’t take long for defensive coordinators to adjust. The savvy owner would have traded Brown after that game, but no one did.  I didn’t own him in any league, but I doubt I would have traded him either.  I don’t plan on owning him in 2009, either. 

Take out week 3 and Brown had 800 rushing yards and six TDs.  His last six games were atrocious – 300 yards rushing and one TD.  That includes games against St. Louis, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the fantasy stretch and playoffs.  Ricky Williams took a hefty chunk of the carries and looks to do the same this year.

I’m projecting Ronnie Brown for a 1000 yard, 9 TD rushing performance in 2009.  That makes him a low end RB2.  However, everything I’ve read so far has him as a top tier RB2.  I’ve seen him ranked ahead of Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, and Thomas Jones.  He’s lauded for having high upside, but I don’t see it.  He’ll be splitting carries on a team that isn’t exactly and offensive juggernaut.  I believe this hype has a strong Wildcat biased just based on that one week 3 game.  Ronnie Brown isn’t even ideal for running the Wildcat – is he really a passing threat?  Opposing defensive coordinators figured out how to contain him pretty quickly, and now they’ve had a whole offseason to think about it more.  With the Wildcat contained and less than 250 carries, Brown’s upside is pretty limited.

I’m calling Ronnie Brown a bust as a second round pick and a top tier RB2.  Don’t get me wrong, if he falls to me in the late third and is the top remaining RB on the my list I’ll grab him.  I think the chances of that happening are low.  Someone in your league is going to buy into the hype and take him in the late 2nd.  I’ll go with a top receiver and gladly grab Kevin Smith or Ryan Grant later.

Fantasy Impact of Marshawn Lynch Suspension

Thursday, April 9th, 2009

Growing up, Marshawn was the kid who always got straight A’s.  He was President and Valedictorian of his high school class.  He went to the University of California on a full ride academic scholarship with a pre-med discipline.  Studies were so easy for him that he decided to attend walk on tryouts for the Cal football team.  Of course he excelled there as well, not only made the team, but quickly becoming the starting back.  His senior year he was faced with the type of dilemma that us normal folks will never even begin to understand – accept the prestigious Peabody Scholarship to attend Johns Hopkins Med School and continue his Neurodegenerative Disease research or declare himself eligible for the NFL draft.  He decided to give up his medical dreams to get rich quick.  It’s all been downhill from there.

The 23-year-old could be curing Alzheimer by now, but instead he’s striking down pedestrians, running red lights, and rocking a loaded revolver at all times.  The commish cracked down on him yesterday for his recent indiscretions, sentencing him to a three game suspension.  Missing 20% of games sounds like a big blow to his fantasy value at first, but it’s really not so bad.  Firstly, he will probably win an appeal to reduce the suspension to two games.  Remember Brandon Marshall’s three game suspension was reduced all the way to one game last year.  With Lynch’s outstanding past accomplishments and public standing his suspension may be wiped away completely!  (Sorry, no more lies about Lynch’s past – he’s a thug but expect him to only be out for two games).

This suspension only knocks Lynch down a couple of spots in my rankings.  The main affect is that Lynch owners now need to reach earlier for backup and pass-catching back Fred Jackson.  Whatever his ADP is going into the draft, grab him a round earlier if you already own Lynch.  This insurance is at a premium because if Lynch has anymore run-ins with the law he will be facing a much longer suspension.  Fred Jackson is already a presence in PPR leagues and has successfully carried the load when Lynch was not available.  There has been some chatter on message boards today about Jackson taking over, but that is silly.  The roles here are pretty clear – Lynch is the man on first and second down and at the goal line.  He also gets plenty of work in the passing game, totaling 47 receptions last season.  On top of this, the Bills are in no hurry to sign Fred Jackson, even though they’ve known a Lynch suspension was looming.

Marshawn Lynch will fall into the mid to late third round, and sometimes even into the fourth.  If you have a late first round pick and can do RB, WR, WR or QB, RB and end up with Marshawn Lynch as your RB2 then you are ahead of the game.  That series of picks could look like Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson, Phillip Rivers, Marshawn Lynch, for example.

In summary, don’t worry too much about this suspension.  The Bills offense looks to be improved with the addition of TO and another year of experience for Trent Edwards.  In theory Lynch will get more scoring opps and could even increasae upon his yardage and TD totals last year.  Currently he’s ranked 22 on my RB list – just behind Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, and Kevin Smith and just in front of Willie Parker and Derrick Ward.  The RB class is very flat this year (as I’ve mentioned a few times on this blog).  Don’t be afraid to wait and take a guy like Lynch as your second RB if elite talent is available for you at other positions.

Earl Bennett – 2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

Earl Bennett has never caught a pass in his NFL career yet I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s the WR you want in PPR leagues in 09.  Bennett has already played with Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt in 2005, where he put up impressive numbers for a rookie.  He played two more seasons at Vandy before leaving early for the NFL Draft.  In his time at Vandy he set and SEC record for career receptions – very impressive considering he only played three years.

At early camps Bennett appears to be slotted at WR2 alongside Devin Hester.  He says that he now has full command of the playbook after struggling with it all last season.  Hester has slowly improved as a WR and his deep route capabilities were always limited by Orton’s strawberry shortcake arm.  I could easily be wrong by taking Bennett over Hester, but I just don’t see Hester becoming the chains-moving type of receiver that racks up points, especially in PPR leagues.  Hester will have games where he absolutely explodes, connecting with Cutler on multiple 30+ yard routes.  He’ll also have plenty of quiet games that kill his fantasy value.

Bennett has the tools to develop into an 85-95 catch kind of guy with Cutler.  It won’t happen this year, but we will see it in the making.  I think the whole Bears passing game will take a year to adjust and obviously Olsen and Forte will be major factors.  Hence I don’t have any Bears WR in the top 30.  However, Bennett’s ADP could be 3-4 rounds lower than Hester’s.  Let someone else nab Hester early and then reach for Bennett one round early as your WR 5.  With his breakout potential he is a strong bargain at that point in the draft.

Cutler to Washington Trade Fantasy Implications

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009

Hey there, JayDan Snyder wants Jay Cutler despite the fact that Cutler posed for the image on the right. If there is anyone in the league that does what it takes to get the player he wants, it’s Dan Snyder. The Skins are now a major player in the Jay Cutler sweepstakes. After the deals they signed for Haynesworth, Hall, and Dockery I’m not so sure that this would be a good move for them. If the salary cap stays in place they will quickly run into problems retaining players. Maybe Snyder is banking on no cap? With Snyder at the helm, the Redskins may become the next dynasty in a noncapped era.

I made a post a couple of weeks ago about the fantasy implications of a Cutler trade but I didn’t consider the Redskins a serious option at the time. The fantasy impact of this trade would be huge There’s no denying that Cutler would be a great fit there. The only thing holding that offense back is Jason Campbell. Campbell looked lost half the time last year trying to run Zorn’s offense. Cutler is already comfortable in the WCO and will be able to step right in. I should reiterate that I’m a Cutler believer, having watched nearly every game he’s played since his freshman year at Vandy. He will be a perennial Pro Bowler.

This would be a lateral move for Cutler’s fantasy value. He’d be supported by a more powerful running game than the RB revolving door that he dealt with in Denver. He’ll miss Brandon Marshall for sure. Neither Santana Moss nor Antwan Randle-El crack six feet. Marshall is 6′4″, 240. He’s a beast man and a big target downfield for Cutler’s big arm. Devin Thomas is a bigger receiver entering his second year. He’ll be an interesting sleeper pick if this trade goes through. Santana Moss is super talented and will get a huge boost in fantasy value. I would move him all the way to 12th on my WR list, just above Wes Welker. He would eclipse 100 receptions as Cutler’s go to guy. Randle-El may get the biggest boost of all. Cutler made a fantasy all star out of Eddie Royal. Randle-El has caught 50+ catches the past two season, and that number would jump to 80-90 if he maintains WR2 status. Royal caught 91 Cutler passes as a rookie in a similar offense. I would rank “the EL” in the late 20s and predict that he would be severely undervalued come draft day.

The whole offense will be improved under Cutler, meaning more scoring opportunities for Portis. Portis TD totals could improve dramatically. His rush attempts may dip a bit, which is good news for his overall health. I love Portis in a Cutler-led offense. He’d get a bump to 5 or 6 in my RB rankings.