One ADP Absurdity at Each Position
Thanks to FantasyFootballCalcutor.com the fantasy community is able to soak in complete average draft position data from over 500 drafts in early June for FREE. I love that site, check it out or give them a follow on Twitter @FFCalculator. The collective fantasy mind for the most part produces a good ADP list, but there are always some picks that leave my scratching my head. I’ll take a look at one ADP absurdity at each position below.
Quarterback: Brett Favre at 202, behind Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco, Marc Bulger, Sage Rosenfels, and Jason Campbell (and just ahead of both rookies)
This is the absurdiest of the absurd. Absurdilicious. Favre is going to play this season. Nearly even major pundit with the balls to make a prediction agrees. Let’s say there is a 75% chance Favre plays, which may be an underestimation. That 25% chance of getting a year long zero from your Favre draft pick definitely cuts into his value, but how much? He’s a low end QB1 if he plays. That’s great trade bait, or a great matchup play to pair with another low end QB1 like Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub. You’ve gotta be Wacco for Flacco to take Joe Flacco over Brett Favre. All of the QBs I mentioned above have potential to be bye week fill-ins at best. You can easily get Favre in the 13th round right now, even after grabbing your first backup QB. He is the clear cut steal of the draft as of June 10th.
Runningback: Pierre Thomas at 36, below Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, and Kevin Smith:
From what we know right now, Thomas has Peyton’s confidence and is going to be the lead ball carrier on a ridiculously prolific offense. On November 16th, 2008 Pierre took over the majority of the carries and produced a monstrous stretch run. In six games he rushed 93 times for 475 yards and 6 TDs. He added 19 receptions for 212 yards and 3 TDs during that same stretch. Take out the Ronnie Browns Wildcat game vs. NE and Pierre outproduced Brown’s entire season in just 6 games. Sure there are questions with Pierre, such as will Bush or Mike Bell take a bigger role or will they sign an outsider. To me, those are the questions that keep him from going in the first round, not the questions that put him behind guys who can’t even sniff his upside. The RB position is deep and Pierre Thomas has enormous upside, especially in PPR leagues. Take him in the late second, early third and you’ll still be able to grab a solid RB3 in the 5th or 6th.
Wide Receiver: Michael Crabtree at 77, over Donnie Avery and Hines Ward
I like the rookie and plan to roster him as a WR4 on a couple of teams, but I’m going to be reasonable about it. Crabtree is an injured rookie that might be platooning and, even worse, might have Alex Smith throwing him the ball on a run-heavy offense. Physically he’s ready to be a big time NFL receiver, but pretty much everything else limits his upside. Hines Ward gets it done year in and year out and will be a weekly contributor on any fantasy team. Donnie Avery is a sleeper who could break out huge this season. The Rams want to be run first, and they will be in the four games they are competitive in, but in the other 12 games Avery is going to get plenty of looks as the Rams play catch-up. Jackson and Avery will be that entire offense.
Tight End: Chris Cooley at 86, well behind Kellen Winslow and Greg Olsen
Cooley is a great value at TE this season because he only had one TD last season. That was an anomaly. He got the highest reception and yardage totals of his career, with 83 catches for 849 yards. In the four previous seasons hes scored 6-8 TDs. Look for him to post similar yardage numbers but bounce back up to at least 5 TDs. He’s the fifth best fantasy TE this season in my opinion, and you can get him three or four rounds later than the studs. I may end up rostering him on many of my teams this year. I like Winslow and Olsen, I would just rather take another RB or WR at their draft positions and grab Cooley a round later.
Defense: Baltimore Ravens in the 8th Round?
Every defense on this list is taken too high, in my opinion. I’m a traditionalist – draft a good one late and then play matchups. The Steelers are averaging the late 7th round, which I also think is absurd, but they have a great case for being the top ranked defense at least. Baltimore, however, should experience a decline. Rex Ryan and Bart Scott were key leadership components, and they are both in New York. Baltimore defense should still be top 10, but there’s no way I’m taking them with all the position skill talent still available in the 8th-10th rounds. I’ll take Dallas in the 14th and build depth everywhere else.
Kicker: All Kickers not taken in the last two rounds.
Kicker is such a silly position. Just take one whenever your draft board is so desolate you have no other options. Sample the waiver wire and play matchups each week.