PPR Mock Draft for 2009 Football – Rounds 1-6

I got together six of my longtime fantasy football compadres at a bar last Monday night to do a mock draft for 2009. We did a 12 team league, each drafting two teams. 12 different drafters would have been ideal, but I was pleasantly surprised that I could even get six people interested this early. I guess we’re all a little football starved at this point, especially on those lonely Monday Al Michaels-less nights. Anyways, here are the results. We went 14 rounds, nearly a full draft. The results were quite intriguing. I’ll list the picks round by round below and give a little analysis.

This is a PPR league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF, and no freaking kickers.

Round 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Michael Turner
5. LaDanian Tomlinson
6. Marion Barber
7. DeAngelo Williams
8. Matt Forte
9. Steven Jackson
10. Joseph Addai
11. Pierre Thomas
12. Chris Johnson

Nothing too surprising here, but take a minute to let this first round sink in. The fantasy landscape changed drastically last year. Two second year RBs already reached the elite fantasy level. Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Pierre Thomas emerged in a similar fashion. There are also plenty of questions – LT is falling, and #5 is probably still too high for the declining performance and injury risk that comes with his selection. The Eagles offense still runs through Westbrook, but how much tread is left on those tires? Adrian Peterson is a beast, but is he worthy of #1 in a PPR league? Same goes for Turner. How much will Felix Jones and Tashard Choice cut into Barber’s production? Will Pierre Thomas carry the load between the tackles? Can he? Colts RB should = Fantasy gold, but can Addai stay healthy and command the lion’s share of the carries? Get your gambling hats on, folks. I don’t think any of these picks are too far out of line, except maybe Pierre Thomas. I’m high on him but don’t like taking that big of a risk in the first round.

Round 2
13. Larry Fitzgerald
14. Andre Johnson
15. Randy Moss
16. Reggie Bush
17. Calvin Johnson
18. Clinton Portis
19. Brandon Marshall
20. Reggie Wayne
21. Ronnie Brown
22. Brandon Jacobs
23. Frank Gore
24. Anquan Boldin

And, like clockwork, the receivers fall off the board in Round 2. Fantasy aficianados have learned that grabbing a couple of the top receivers in a PPR league can put you over the edge. There are plenty of first round quality pass catching RBs available early I would not recommend the WR/WR late first round strategy. I don’t fault any of these picks until Ronnie Brown. Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs were both still on the board here, along with Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin. These guys are all better options than Brown here. If you take out Ronnie Brown’s monster Wildcat game against New England he had a very lackluster fantasy season. On top of that his performance waned as the season went on. Nothing suggests breakout to me here. RB is still an RB2, just don’t take him until the mid 3rd round at earliest. Jacobs and Gore are great values this late in the second round. They will never fall this far in a non PPR league. Notice no QBs off the board yet.

Round 3
25. Thomas Jones
26. Drew Brees
27. Steve Smith
28. Roddy White
29. Marshawn Lynch
30. Peyton Manning
32. Greg Jennings
32. Tom Brady
33. Wes Welker
34. Steve Slaton
35. Willie Parker
36. Ryan Grant

Here come the big QBs. Brees, Manning, and Brady go within 7 picks of each other in the third round. I believe these guys will separate themselves in the QB rankings this season so I find these draft positions dead on. In most drafts someone is going to reach for one of them earlier, though, which could trigger a run on all three. If Brady looks good in the preseason he will jump, but nobody at this draft was willing to take that risk just yet. Notice the guys that took top notch WRs in round 2 landed solid RB2s still. Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch (we’ll see about suspensions), Steve Slaton, and Ryan Grant will all get the job done. I would have passed on Willie Parker at 35, taking Kevin Smith or Ryan Grant instead. Team 10 is sitting very pretty with Joseph Addai, Randy Moss, and Steve Slaton through three rounds.

Round 4
37. Marques Colston
38. Jason Witten
39. Phillip Rivers
40. Terrell Owens
41. Darren Sproles
42. Kurt Warner
43. Dwayne Bowe
44. TJ Houshamadilly
45. Jay Cutler
46. Roy Williams
47. Antonio Gates
48. Tony Gonzalez

Marques Colston falls all the way to round 4. I think this will be common in 09, but it’s a mistake. Jump on Colston in the third if you need a #1 WR. A full year healthy with Brees could easily land him in the top 5. Darren Sproles is a ballsy gamble here at pick 41. He put up absurd numbers in the playoffs so I do think he’ll see an expanded role in 09. The main issue with this pick is that he could have been drafted just as easily in the next round. The elite WR options end with Colston. TO and TJ are both risks for lackluster seasons. Three TEs are interesting here. If Gonzalez stays in KC I’m psyched to see what he and Bowe can do with Cassel, so this isn’t as much of a reach as it seems. His reception totals were phenomenal once again last season. Lots of tier 2 QBs coming off the board now, just one round after the tier one guys. I’d prefer to wait until round 5 if I don’t get a top three option.

Round 5
49. Tony Romo
50. Santonio Holmes
51. Kevin Smith
52. Vincent Jackson
53. Braylon Edwards
54. Jamal Lewis
55. Eddie Royal
56. Lee Evans
57. Aaron Rodgers
58. Chad Ocho Cinco
59. Tim Hightower
60. Ben Roethlisberger

I groaned when Jamal Lewis was picked here, even though he fell to the fifth round. Apparently I don’t want to see him on any fantasy teams this year, not just my own, lol. Kevin Smith is a phenomenal value at 51 – a solid RB2 that catches a lot of balls in the beginning of the fifth. That should not have happened. Santonio, VJ, Lee Evans and Eddie Royal are solid WR2s but not too exciting. Edwards will be a great value if he bounces back. If Ocho Cinco has a shred of sanity left he’s due for a 90+ catch season, so this is good value for him.

Round 6
61. Plaxico Burress
62. Donovan McNabb
63. Antonio Bryant
64. Santana Moss
65. Lendale White
66. Anthony Gonzalez
67. Cedric Benson
68. Matt Schaub
69. Lance Moore
70. Matt Ryan
71. DeSean Jackson
72. Hines Ward

I was shocked Antonio Bryant fell to round 6. This is around where I would take him considering his QB, but I figured someone would grab him earlier based on his obscene finish last season. Antonio is playing under the franchise tag and desperately wants a long term deal so this is probably too low for him. Plaxico Burress is a wild card at the time of this draft. He’ll get a two-round boost if he’s able to start the season as a Giant. I love the Anthony Gonzalez pick for team 7. With DeAngelo WIlliams, Clinton Portis, Greg Jennings, Kurt Warner, and Eddie Royal already rostered this team has the base to go for a high upside pick. That is exactly what A-Gonz is in 09 now that Harrison is out of Indy. Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan are bad picks here. These guys are low end starting QBs. They could have dropped further, but even if you miss out on them similar value can be found throughout the next four rounds.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 25th, 2009 at 9:06 am and is filed under 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.